grant williams macro

And you talked about how it's completely different right now. They've placed that bond at negative interest rates.So Louis Vuitton has been funded by the ECB, has been paid to borrow the money to buy Tiffany. I've seen very credible estimates that it should be zero. And I think that we've been talking about all this stuff going on with the financial economy, but then in the real economy, things are much different now than they have been in the past, or maybe even more of a powder keg than they have been in the past. If you could walk us through number one, that documentary for people who didn't see it and then discuss his philosophy and his framework for investing. So Japan is absolutely not, I don't think a viable comparison. U.S isn't really testing people, so they're not really finding cases yet. You read the fluctuations in the market very differently. He took himself back to being a child during the Vietnam war and remembering every night, Walter Cronkite talking about the 307 American casualties and 150 South Vietnamese casualties, but 1,007 North Vietnamese casualties.And Ben's point was, look, they probably knew exactly how many Americans died that day and probably under-reported it. It needs to have the overground brush cleared if it's going to be able to grow again. But they always point out that fact. When you have guesses range between 50 and 400 million people under some kind of quarantine, that's a problem.Yet equity markets particularly were whistling past the graveyard. And it all starts with demographics from the way your framework, the way you look at it.I think even more so now, because the demographics in the developed world are so poor, right across the world, essentially. And of course with China being the workshop of the world still, even though people have outsourced from China to other parts of Asia, it was clear this was to have a material effect on supply chains and disrupt the global economy. So I saw the blow off in the equity markets from a seat on a trading desk in Tokyo. The question they always start with is, is this going to go up in price or down in price? Every time the fed have needed to step in, they've stepped in. My problem in this particular case is that it's being done at the expense of public safety. You have this much debt overhanging the world. It was that wasn't some great plan. It's really interesting to understand the role of gold in the financial system. I haven't done that, which I'm actually pleased that they haven't at this point because I think the problem we're seeing here is not solvable by a 50 basis rate cut. Erik and Grant discuss: How to navigate the current environment of escalating civil unrest and the social divide; Rise of MMT – how close are we and what should we expect?

That's the problem that will upend this whole thing. And about, where are we? The Nikkei didn't crash. Once your account is created, you'll be logged-in to this account. But pork prices are up and they're going up 100% year on year on every month for the last four months. And I don't want to get talking about Tesla, but it's the perfect example. And it's a major problem, whether it's car parts, whether it's machine parts. It needs that back burning. And all the clues as to how they'll play out are there, so I mean, that for me has been a wonderful gift in the fact that I actually love reading about history and I've learned so much from it. He's a whole another level to Warren Buffet. And as much as the fed will, and the other central banks, I always use the fed as a proxy for all of them. He really opened my eyes to the Eurodollar system and that maybe QE really didn't work and the fed funds rate, maybe they lose control of that a lot more than people realize. In terms of owning a piece of cash flow, not just an equity that is inflated by stock market value.And some of the stories he told in the interview were remarkable about the guys he's met who have 150-year-old businesses that 100 years ago they sold a bond to raise the money to build a new cowshed somewhere. Ignore it. They have long supply chains there. That's pre the last month. Where does the bank of Japan go? It was, listen, trust us we'll fix this. You understand how the business is being managed. Because at that point, Europe was melting down and I think if you read Tim Guidance book, there's a fantastic piece in there where he talks about the fact that Druggie told him that he scribbled those words on a napkin. Thanks to all my guests in The 2020 Hmmminar Series.I'll post all the conversations as podcasts shortly.

Yeah, there's only 200 cases or 300 cases. People fixate on the gold price, which is a futures contract quoted in New York 24 hours a day, give or take around the world but it's a paid piece of paper that conveys upon the ability to own gold. Again, they really came of age post '08. There are people that just want to trade the price, right? But ultimately this was always my rationale for at least having an allocation to gold. Even if you're sure and making money on this, is not a good time to be sitting there looking at what's around you and looking at what potentially would be the kind damage we face. And every now and again they get violent and you'll see bits on social media about them.But this is a nationwide protest that was sparked by an increase in tax on diesel fuel by President Macron. There is a strong possibility that may not be a business you want to own but few people I think, have the courage to just sell a business because they can't really work out what it is. That's the point. Thanks for having me. This is not something… I talk about this a lot. He was the third generation of the family who had run the business.
China an irrelevance back then.

That's again, it's a real problem and everything we're seeing around the world now, in terms of quarantines, in terms of potential inflation due to shortage of supplies you quite rightly pointed out on your own. If you can't feed the people in China, they very quickly get unhappy and that's what they have to guard against. And we've done so against a consumer who cannot afford to pay rising prices.So everything is being forced to be cut back to the bone.

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